Talking to a friend of mine this week who entered ESPN's spread picks contest and correctly picked only four games this week to the national average five, I realized Vegas made a killing this weekend.
Who could have seen Peyton Manning throw six picks, "Automatic Adam" Viniteri miss two vital kicks in the same game, the Rams actually winning a game, "Sexy Rexy" Grossman stepping onto the field to actually lead his team to victory? The only constant of the week was that the Patriots remained undefeated (New England was on a bye week) and Brady threw for three touchdowns (Marcus Brady of the Canadian Football League that is).
Congratulations to Ryan Beard and Cindy Nichols for royally destroying me this week after my dismal 5-9 record last week. Due to Cindy's copy editor position on the Statesman staff, she is inelgible for the drawing and Ryan wins the iTunes gift card by default. Now on to picks:
Tampa Bay travels to three-and-a-half-point underdog Atlanta with a 5-4 record and only one win on the road. However, I am not convinced the Falcons can pull off any more wins than they already have (it surprised me every time they've won). I'll take the Bucs in a close one but covering the spread Bucs 27, Falcons 21.
Arizona travels to three-and-a-half-point favorite Cincinnati. The Bengals may have controlled the Ravens last week, but this season, that isn't saying much. The Cardinals stopped a strong rolling Lions team with a lot of momentum. With the up-and-down type play I've seen out of the Bengals, my expectations aren't too high right now. I'll take the Cardinals outright, Cardinals 38, Bengals 20.
The New York Giants travel to the three-and-a-half-point underdog Detroit Lions. Each team has something to prove after last week's loss. The Giants are still a very solid team, although they do not match up well in the secondary.
Expect the Lions to exploit that as the Cowboys did. Eli Manning will have his work cut out for him this week, and with the underrated Detroit defense I don't think he will be able to keep up with the Lions. I'll take Detroit outright at Lions 24, Giants 21.
The Carolina Panthers take on the strong nine-and-a-half-point favorite Green Bay Packers. Anyone who questioned whether the Packers were legit or not got his or her answer last week in the form of a Viking massacre. The Panthers are so hit or miss and even when they are on, I'm not sure they can keep the game within 10. I'll take the Packers at home with a score of Packers 34, Panthers 21.
Kansas City travels to the vengeful 14-and-a-half-point favorite Indianapolis Colts. I don't care who you are, after the loss to the Chargers, I would hate to take on the Colts. While a two-touchdown lead is pretty large, the Chiefs are coming off a 16-point loss to mediocre Broncos team. The Colts, even as beat up as they are, are twice the team the Broncos are. I'll take the Colts and it won't even be close, Colts 38, Chiefs 10.
Oakland travels to five-and-a-half-point favorite Minnesota. Even though the Vikes are without their star Adrian Peterson, they still have Chester Taylor. Especially after an ugly loss to the Bears, I doubt the Raiders can stop the Vikings right now. I'll take the Vikings to cover the spread, Vikings 24, Raiders 10.
Miami travels to 10-and-a-half-point favorite Philadelphia and will most likely be blown out by even more. Miami is sure to pull off a win this season, but it won't be this week. Don't worry, Miami, the Jets are still on your schedule. I'll take the Eagles in a landslide, Eagles 27, Miami 6.
San Diego left Indianapolis looking pretty bad in its win and travel to three-and-a-half-point favorite Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have looked stronger each week, as Quinton Gray grows in confidence. I don't see them stopping now. I'll take the Jaguars to more than cover the spread, Jaguars 30, Chargers 17.
Cleveland travels to three-and-a-half-point underdog Baltimore Ravens. The Browns have only continued to impress me, even in a loss to the Steelers, while the Ravens continue to spiral downward. This pick is an easy one. The Browns cover the spread, Browns 28, Ravens 9.
The New Orleans Saints will attempt to pick themselves back up after an embarrassing loss to the once winless Rams and travel to the one-and-a-half-point favorite Houston Texans. I am still not convinced that the Saints have truly turned the page after a horrendous start. I'll stick with the Texans by a field goal, Texans 20, Saints 17.
The Steelers travel to the nine-and-a-half-point underdog New York Jets. The Steelers are the best non-Colts and Patriots team in the AFC and the Jets are the second-worst to only the Dolphins. And the Steelers are only favored by nine-and-a-half? I'll take the Steelers by three possessions…by the third quarter, Steelers 42, Jets 10.
The Washington Redskins travel to the NFC-best 10-and-a-half-point favorite Dallas Cowboys. This is still a strong rivalry even though the Cowboys have consistently had the better team. The Cowboys will win convincingly, well in control the entire game, but by more than 10? I think so, but not until the fourth quarter. I'll take the Cowboys covering the spread Cowboys 35, Redskins 24.
The St. Louis Rams, coming off their first win of the season, face a weak and embarrassed two-and-a-half-point underdog San Francisco 49ers. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the 49ers are lucky to have the two wins they do. The Rams take their second win of the season and even cover the spread, Rams 24, 49ers 17.
Chicago travels to five-and-a-half-point favorite Seattle Seahawks with Rex Grossman at the helm. This is a situation that could be potentially embarrassing for the Bears. The Seahawks were dominant on Monday Night Football and they won't be slowed much by this Bears team. I'll take the Seahawks covering the spread, Seahawks 24, Bears 13.
The New England Patriots come off the bye week and travel to division foe and 15-and-a-half-point underdog Buffalo Bills. While I think the Bills might be that dark horse to upset the Patriots with home field advantage, I just can't ignore what the Patriots have done this year. While I don't think the Patriots need to intimidate any more after beating the Colts, I also wouldn't be surprised if they still ran up the score to put an exclamation point on a ridiculous year. History says the Patriots will destroy and I'll go with it. Patriots cover the spread, Patriots 38, Bills 13.
On Monday Night Football, the Tennessee Titans travel to two-and-a-half-point favorite Denver Broncos. The Broncos may have made a statement against the Chiefs, but then again, it was the Chiefs. The Titans play in the toughest division in the AFC and will come to this game ready. Quarterback Vince Young loves the spotlight and shines on the national stage. I expect a big game and finally a MNF game worth watching. Titans upset the Broncos, Titans 27, Broncos 21.
So those are my picks. Send me yours. Unless, that is, you don't have what it takes.
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