After going 7-7 last week, I learned exactly why those guys in Vegas make so much money. Picking against the spread is very difficult, although Indiana State student Ryan Beard pulled off a 9-5 mark. So congratulations to Beard in the Statesman Picker contest. Now, on to the picks:
We begin with the San Francisco 49ers traveling to the three-point favorite Atlanta Falcons. Now honestly, I am simply surprised that the Falcons are a favorite against anyone except maybe the Rams or Dolphins, and they are on a bye this week. The 49ers have lost their last five after going 2-0 for the first two weeks, but I really don't see the Falcons beating them, even at home. I'll take the 49ers winning outright, 49ers 20, Falcons 10.
The Cincinnati Bengals are half-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati has yet to win a game away from home this year, but the Bills have not looked that spectacular either. I keep thinking the Bengals are a lot better than their record implies, but how many times can they lose before they obviously are as their record shows? Well fool me once, shame on you, fool me for the last four weeks … well, I'll take the Bills with a score of Bills 24, Bengals 17.
The Denver Broncos, after a heart-breaking loss in overtime to the conference leading Green Bay Packers, travel to the three-point favorite Detroit Lions. Though the Lions have continued to get it done this year, beating the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), and Bucs, they have yet to beat an opponent as good as the Broncos, losing to both the Eagles and Redskins. I'll take the Broncos outright with a score of Broncos 30, Lions 21.
Carolina travels to play four-point favorite Tennessee. With the return of Vince Young and the confusion from Carolina last week against the Colts, you would think this to be an easy pick. However, a 4-3 Carolina Panthers team is 4-0 on the road this year. However this brings more to question, "Why can't they win a game at home?" but that is a topic for another column. Titans win it, but only by a field goal. I'll take Carolina in the spread at Titans 20, Panthers 17.
Green Bay travels to Kansas City as two-and-a-half-point underdogs, wondering what they have to do to get some respect in this league. They beat the Broncos on Monday night and sit on top of their division. Brett Favre is looking like the quarterback that led the Packers to two consecutive Super Bowls, while Kansas City has yet to wow me. This one is a no-brainer to me. I'll take the Packers outright with a score of Green Bay 27, Kansas City 13.
The San Diego Chargers travel to the seven-and-a-half-point underdog Minnesota Vikings, after showing the Texans how much they have turned a page since their 1-3 start to the season. The Vikings have really looked a lot better these last three weeks as well, despite losses to the Cowboys and Eagles, beating the Bears and keeping the game with 10 to Cowboys and with a single possession with the Eagles. The Vikings are not a playoff team yet, but they are showing signs of improvement. The Chargers will win, but I think the Vikings will keep it within a possession. I'll take the Vikings in the spread at Chargers 24, Vikings 17.
Jacksonville proved last week they could win without David Garrard, and travel to New Orleans as three-and-a-half-point underdogs. The Saints still have a ways to go before they are playoff ready, and the Jaguars are simply getting it done. I'll take the Jags to win it outright with a score of Jaguars 21, Saints 16.
After an embarrassing loss to the Patriots last week, the Redskins have something to prove as they travel to the three-and-a-half-point underdog New York Jets. The Jets returned Chad Pennington recently and are not even sure if that is a good thing, as they benched Pennington in the fourth quarter last week and threw Kellen Clemens in. It's hard to win with such uncertainty around the quarterback position, and the Redskins are furious. I'll take the Redskins in a landslide of Redskins 45, Jets 10.
Arizona travels to three-and-a-half-point favorite Tampa Bay after an extra week to prepare. That extra week also means more time to get key players healthy such as Kurt Warner. The Cardinals kept it close against the Redskins, and with Warner healthier, I think the Cardinals have a good chance. I'll take the Cardinals outright with a score of Cardinals 27, Buccaneers 21.
Seattle travels to one-point favorite Cleveland in a game where both have something to prove. Seattle is expected to do a lot better than they have and the Browns are just starting to earn some respect. Derek Anderson has looked great this year and has been a large part of the big difference this year. Seattle could win this game, but not in the "Dawg Pound." I'll take the Browns covering the spread at Browns 28, Seahawks 17.
Houston travels to Oakland, who is favored to win by a field goal, and will attempt to erase an embarrassing loss in San Diego. The Raiders may be better than last year, but so are the Texans and I think Houston will be ready for them. I'll take the Texans outright at Texans 20, Raiders 17.
Dallas travels to division rival Philadelphia as three-point favorites. The Cowboys and Eagles play in one of the toughest divisions in football. This game won't be a cakewalk for the Cowboys, but with a couple of weeks to prepare, I see Dallas taking it in a big game. I'll take the Cowboys covering the spread with a score of Cowboys 32, Eagles 17.
The Ravens travel to Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football as nine-point underdogs and even then I think Vegas might be giving the unable-to-score Ravens more credit than they deserve. The Ravens have only won a single game on the road this year and I don't see the Steelers giving them another. Can the Ravens keep the game within a possession and a field goal? I highly doubt it. I'll take the Steelers covering the spread at Steelers 27, Ravens 6.
I saved the biggest game for last, even though it's not a Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football game. That's right, what the media has billed Manning versus Brady, Dungy versus Belichick, Good versus Evil, and even Super Bowl 41.5, is as big as they say.
This game has huge implications, bigger for the Colts than the Patriots. This game not only leaves only one team undefeated, but likely will give one team home-field advantage should they meet again in the playoffs, which is bigger for the Colts as they have more trouble at New England than the Patriots do in Indy.
So what team is the best in the league? We will find out this week and the Colts are billed as five-and-a-half-point underdogs in their own dome, something that has not happened in years. With the Patriots such heavy favorites, the Colts can relish that underdog role as they love to do and come out and take it. The Colts had the Patriots' number the last three meetings, and I see this Colts team, a better team than the one that won the Super Bowl, taking the game outright at a score of Colts 27, Patriots 23.
So there you have it. Think you can pick better against the spread? Well bring it, and maybe there's an iTunes gift card with your name on it.
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