NFL Predictions-Week 9

After going 7-7 last week, I learned exactly why those guys in Vegas make so much money. Picking against the spread is very difficult, although Indiana State student Ryan Beard pulled off a 9-5 mark. So congratulations to Beard in the Statesman Picker contest. Now, on to the picks:

We begin with the San Francisco 49ers traveling to the three-point favorite Atlanta Falcons. Now honestly, I am simply surprised that the Falcons are a favorite against anyone except maybe the Rams or Dolphins, and they are on a bye this week. The 49ers have lost their last five after going 2-0 for the first two weeks, but I really don't see the Falcons beating them, even at home. I'll take the 49ers winning outright, 49ers 20, Falcons 10.

The Cincinnati Bengals are half-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati has yet to win a game away from home this year, but the Bills have not looked that spectacular either. I keep thinking the Bengals are a lot better than their record implies, but how many times can they lose before they obviously are as their record shows? Well fool me once, shame on you, fool me for the last four weeks … well, I'll take the Bills with a score of Bills 24, Bengals 17.

The Denver Broncos, after a heart-breaking loss in overtime to the conference leading Green Bay Packers, travel to the three-point favorite Detroit Lions. Though the Lions have continued to get it done this year, beating the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), and Bucs, they have yet to beat an opponent as good as the Broncos, losing to both the Eagles and Redskins. I'll take the Broncos outright with a score of Broncos 30, Lions 21.

Carolina travels to play four-point favorite Tennessee. With the return of Vince Young and the confusion from Carolina last week against the Colts, you would think this to be an easy pick. However, a 4-3 Carolina Panthers team is 4-0 on the road this year. However this brings more to question, "Why can't they win a game at home?" but that is a topic for another column. Titans win it, but only by a field goal. I'll take Carolina in the spread at Titans 20, Panthers 17.

Green Bay travels to Kansas City as two-and-a-half-point underdogs, wondering what they have to do to get some respect in this league. They beat the Broncos on Monday night and sit on top of their division. Brett Favre is looking like the quarterback that led the Packers to two consecutive Super Bowls, while Kansas City has yet to wow me. This one is a no-brainer to me. I'll take the Packers outright with a score of Green Bay 27, Kansas City 13.

The San Diego Chargers travel to the seven-and-a-half-point underdog Minnesota Vikings, after showing the Texans how much they have turned a page since their 1-3 start to the season. The Vikings have really looked a lot better these last three weeks as well, despite losses to the Cowboys and Eagles, beating the Bears and keeping the game with 10 to Cowboys and with a single possession with the Eagles. The Vikings are not a playoff team yet, but they are showing signs of improvement. The Chargers will win, but I think the Vikings will keep it within a possession. I'll take the Vikings in the spread at Chargers 24, Vikings 17.

Jacksonville proved last week they could win without David Garrard, and travel to New Orleans as three-and-a-half-point underdogs. The Saints still have a ways to go before they are playoff ready, and the Jaguars are simply getting it done. I'll take the Jags to win it outright with a score of Jaguars 21, Saints 16.

After an embarrassing loss to the Patriots last week, the Redskins have something to prove as they travel to the three-and-a-half-point underdog New York Jets. The Jets returned Chad Pennington recently and are not even sure if that is a good thing, as they benched Pennington in the fourth quarter last week and threw Kellen Clemens in. It's hard to win with such uncertainty around the quarterback position, and the Redskins are furious. I'll take the Redskins in a landslide of Redskins 45, Jets 10.

Arizona travels to three-and-a-half-point favorite Tampa Bay after an extra week to prepare. That extra week also means more time to get key players healthy such as Kurt Warner. The Cardinals kept it close against the Redskins, and with Warner healthier, I think the Cardinals have a good chance. I'll take the Cardinals outright with a score of Cardinals 27, Buccaneers 21.

Seattle travels to one-point favorite Cleveland in a game where both have something to prove. Seattle is expected to do a lot better than they have and the Browns are just starting to earn some respect. Derek Anderson has looked great this year and has been a large part of the big difference this year. Seattle could win this game, but not in the "Dawg Pound." I'll take the Browns covering the spread at Browns 28, Seahawks 17.

Houston travels to Oakland, who is favored to win by a field goal, and will attempt to erase an embarrassing loss in San Diego. The Raiders may be better than last year, but so are the Texans and I think Houston will be ready for them. I'll take the Texans outright at Texans 20, Raiders 17.

Dallas travels to division rival Philadelphia as three-point favorites. The Cowboys and Eagles play in one of the toughest divisions in football. This game won't be a cakewalk for the Cowboys, but with a couple of weeks to prepare, I see Dallas taking it in a big game. I'll take the Cowboys covering the spread with a score of Cowboys 32, Eagles 17.

The Ravens travel to Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football as nine-point underdogs and even then I think Vegas might be giving the unable-to-score Ravens more credit than they deserve. The Ravens have only won a single game on the road this year and I don't see the Steelers giving them another. Can the Ravens keep the game within a possession and a field goal? I highly doubt it. I'll take the Steelers covering the spread at Steelers 27, Ravens 6.

I saved the biggest game for last, even though it's not a Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football game. That's right, what the media has billed Manning versus Brady, Dungy versus Belichick, Good versus Evil, and even Super Bowl 41.5, is as big as they say.

This game has huge implications, bigger for the Colts than the Patriots. This game not only leaves only one team undefeated, but likely will give one team home-field advantage should they meet again in the playoffs, which is bigger for the Colts as they have more trouble at New England than the Patriots do in Indy.

So what team is the best in the league? We will find out this week and the Colts are billed as five-and-a-half-point underdogs in their own dome, something that has not happened in years. With the Patriots such heavy favorites, the Colts can relish that underdog role as they love to do and come out and take it. The Colts had the Patriots' number the last three meetings, and I see this Colts team, a better team than the one that won the Super Bowl, taking the game outright at a score of Colts 27, Patriots 23.

So there you have it. Think you can pick better against the spread? Well bring it, and maybe there's an iTunes gift card with your name on it.

NFL Predictions-Week 8

Last week proved me to be way off base on a couple of games, and my upset calls were completely off. I completely underestimated the Rams' ability to lose a game. I will not do that again. For some reason I figured the returns of Marc Bulger and Isaac Bruce might actually make a difference. I was wrong and will learn from my mistakes. I doubt I will take the Rams again this season.

Congratulations to Dustin Hall for winning the Statesman NFL Picker. This was the first week that we had more than one student who beat me and therefore the first actual drawing, so a special shout out goes to Ryan Beard and Michael Disher who also beat me, but lost the drawing.

I finished last week with an 8-6 mark, moving to a 59-44 season record. It was suggested to me that any monkey could pick many of the winners in the NFL, but you really have to know the teams to pick against the spread. So we are going to try picking against the spread this week. We'll see how it goes.

Now on to my picks: Detroit travels to Chicago this week as five-point underdogs. The Bears are beginning to look better after last week against the Eagles, and Detroit, although they had been digressing recently, looked in control against Tampa Bay. Bears quarterback Brian Griese is looking better each week, but I still have my doubts about him at the helm. Being at home, the Bears may pull off the win, but I doubt it will be by five. I'll take the Lions in the spread with a final score of Bears 24, Lions 21.

Pittsburgh travels to Cincinnati as three-and-a-half-point favorites. The Steelers looked rather confused against the Broncos last week, but I fully expect Pittsburgh to bounce back. The Steelers will learn from that game and use it to improve. And the Bengals, even though they defeated the lowly Jets, have yet to look that great this year. I expect to see the Steelers do what they do best and simply pound the ball at the Bengals. I'll take the Steelers covering the spread at Steelers 27, Bengals 17.

Tennessee will host Oakland this Sunday and is a seven-and-a-half-point favorite. Vince Young will be back for this game and can be a full 10-point difference for the Titans. In front of a raucous home crowd and against a far inferior opponent, I'll take the Titans covering the spread at Titans 21, Raiders 10.

Cleveland travels to St. Louis this weekend and is a mere three-point favorite. Anyone who would pick either the Rams to win or to lose by less than a field goal to the 3-3 Browns might need a drug test before applying for any government job. I'll take the Browns in a no-brainer, Browns 38, Rams 13.

The New York Giants have been climbing in the ever-tough NFC East over the last five weeks, racking up five consecutive wins. Make that six as they travel to London, in a "Let's bring American football to the world effort," to face the even-worse-than-the-Rams, Miami Dolphins. The Giants are nine-and-a-half-point favorites, and with the loss of running back Ronnie Brown, it should be more than enough. I'll take the Giants with a score of Giants 38, Dolphins 17.

Philadelphia travels to Minnesota as one-point favorites, and I am not even sure if they should be favored in this matchup. The Eagles didn't look that stellar against a weak Bears team and Minnesota put up quite the fight against the Cowboys. Tarvaris Jackson still has a ways to go, and I don't expect the Vikings to be a big playoff threat, but Adrian Peterson has caused the league to take them seriously. I'll take the Vikings in a close game at home at Vikings 24, Eagles 23.

Indianapolis takes on Carolina on the road as seven-point favorites. The Panthers are 4-2 on the year but have yet to win a single game in front of their home crowd with their two losses at home. I am not sure what is the cause of this oddity, but the Colts have been in control of every game they have played this year and I don't see that changing. The real question becomes whether or not the Panthers can keep the game within a single possession. I think they will for most of the game, but the Colts will pull away with some breathing room in the fourth quarter for a Colts win at Colts 31, Panthers 21.

The New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills as favorites by a field goal, and honestly I wouldn't pick them outright. Chad Pennington did return this last week and he looked like a quarterback in control, but one man can't win the game. I see the Bills stealing this cross-state game with a score of Bills 24, Jets 19.

Houston travels to Phoenix this weekend to face the San Diego Chargers. (Wait, don't you mean Arizona Cardinals?) Nope, with the wildfires in southern California this week, it looks like the Chargers will not be able to host the game this Sunday. The Chargers are named as nine-and-a-half-point favorites, and I doubt they can surmount a sizeable lead. I think they will pull off a win but only by a single possession. I'll take the Texans against the spread at Chargers 27, Texans 23.

After a tough loss to the Colts and an even tougher loss of quarterback David Garrard, the Jaguars travel to Tampa Bay after the Bucs suffered an embarrassing loss to the Lions with a turnover ratio of +2.

The loss of Garrard to the Jags was possibly the largest loss the organization could take, as the Jags have entered panic mode, searching for a veteran quarterback to take over the reins. Such little confidence in backup Quinn Gray tells me that Tampa Bay will have no problem taking Jacksonville at home. I'll take the Buccaneers with a score of Bucs 27, Jags 13.

Washington travels to seemingly unstoppable New England as 16.5 point underdogs. I agree with the Redskins being underdogs, but disagree with the number. I realize the Patriots have won by over 17 points in every game this season, but I see the Redskins breaking that barrier and holding some ground. I don't doubt the Patriots will climb to 8-0, but I'll take the Redskins against the spread at Patriots 32, Redskins 21.

New Orleans faces the three-point underdog 49ers in San Francisco this Sunday and receives the luxury of playing another sub-par team after narrowly defeating the Falcons. The 49ers, after jumping to a 2-0 start and hopes of contending again, have lost the last four games. The 49ers just never seem to have the answers and I don't see it changing. I'll take the Saints with a score of Saints 20, 49ers 13.

In the Monday Night Football game, the 5-1 Green Bay Packers travel to a tough 3-3 Denver Broncos. Even though the Packers have a full two-game advantage in record, the three-point favorite Broncos are looking to keep their momentum going after taking a bite out of the Steelers last Sunday. Green Bay has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game and has looked great this year. This will be the biggest test for the Packers, and if they can pull off the win in Denver, they become the team to beat in the NFC along with Dallas. I think they will. I'll take the Packers in a nail-biter at Packers 27, Broncos 24.

So there are my picks against the spread, let's see what you think. Send me your picks at sasspted@isugw.indstate.edu. There are no easy picks this week, since we are picking against the spread. Think you can beat me? Bring it.

NFL Predictions-Week 7

Excellent matchups last week led to some exciting football.
My pick of the Cowboys over the Patriots came back to bite me, as it allowed Sycamore student Ryan Beard to claim victory over me by a single win.

Ryan will receive an iTunes gift card courtesy of the Statesman. I finished this week at 9-4 for 51-38 on the season. Now on to my picks: Looking over the schedule, Ravens over Bills, Cowboys over Vikings, Patriots over Dolphins and Giants over 49ers jump out at me for easy picks.

Matchups between Atlanta and New Orleans as well as New York Jets and Cincinnati will provide such ugly games, I am shocked they aren't on Monday Night Football this year. Nonetheless, I'll take the Saints and Bengals, but only because they have home field advantage and they can't all lose.

Tampa Bay and Detroit will provide an exciting game with a pair of team that are outperforming every expectation of them. This is when football gets fun, or any sport for that matter.

Colorado Rockies, anyone? Detroit is coming off a bye week in a much-needed time after a shellacking by the Redskins and is sure to have made some improvements in the last couple weeks. The Bucs on the other hand have been playing some of the best football seen inTampa Bay in a while.

Tampa continues to grow with confidence each week. Detroit has struggled a lot against the play-action pass, but unless the Bucs establish a running game, it will become a moot point this week, but something to remember for the future. Earnest Graham is the primary running back for the Buccaneers this week, and after Tampa's run game was nearly non-existent last week against Tennessee, and I don't see it changing enough to become an issue. On the Lions' side of the ball, if the offensive line can give quarterback Jon Kitna the time to make his reads, expect that same explosive offense we saw glimpses of earlier this year. However, that is a big if. I'll take the Tampa defense for a Buccaneer win in a fun and exciting game.

The Titans travel to Houston this week for a big division battle. The Texans have slowed down after a strong start this year, so the question becomes can they come back from this slump and contend, or has the clock already struck midnight with the Texans turning back into a pumpkin? I expect to see the Texans come back, but this could be a tough week to do so.

The Titans have become a very solid football team this year, but may be playing without the likes of their star quarterback, Vince Young,and be forced to rely on the ancient statue that once was a quarterback, Kerry Collins.

The Titans need Young back, and they need him back now. We saw last year what happens when they rely on Collins, and it isn't pretty. Look for a big game from Mario Williams if Collins is behind center, although Young stated he is doing everything he can to be able to play on Sunday.

Young still may be limited in his scrambling ability, so look for Houston to test this early with a few heavy blitzes. I still like the Titans in this game, but it will be a mighty clash.

When the Cardinals travel to Washington, it will prove to be a very pivotal game for both teams. A Cardinals win keeps the team in first place in the NFC West as they are currently tied with Seattle, and, should the Redskins win, they stay in the hunt for the NFC East. Both teams are coming off losses and are hoping to regain momentum and confidence.

With Tim Rattay at quarterback, not even being a member of the team at this point last week, the Cardinals will rely heavily on running back Edgerrin James for a big game to take the pressure off the quarterback.

Redskins coach Joe Gibbs will no doubt attempt to rattle Rattay often and early, and test his capabilities. Look for quick routes to receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden, with big plays after the catch. This will allow less pressure on Rattay
and more opportunities for the Cardinals. Jason Campbell of the Redskins will look to pressure the Cardinals defense right away and test their secondary.

The Redskins have some solid running backs, but they have not lived up to their
potential. I'll take the Cardinals in an emotional battle with bigconsequences. Neither Kansas City nor Oakland has impressed me in the slightest this season.

Oakland is the 2.5 point favorite (who would think Oakland would ever be a favorite this year) and even though they are at home, I really
don't see the Raiders pulling it off. This division is still wide open with the Chiefs and Chargers at 3-3 and Denver and Oakland at 2-3, so it's still anybody's game.

Sources say that running back Priest Holmes is back this week and with the two back attack, I like the Chiefs' chances. I'll take Kansas City, but it's going to be ugly.

Philadelphia has looked better last week, and the Bears only continue to add question
marks. Both teams have been so spotty this year; it is hard to tell which Eagles and Bears teams will show up. I'll take the Eagles, but, honestly, only because the quarter landed heads.

In the Seattle-St. Louis matchup, I am smelling upset. Bulger is back and healthy and Seattle just looks so unemotional, like they could care less whether or not they are even there. St. Louis has to win at some point and I think this might be the week.

I'll take the Rams in a big upset special. I expect a big game out of the Steelers in the Sunday Night Football game at Denver. Denver hasn't looked its greatest, and I see the Pittsburgh defense giving the Broncos some serious trouble. I'll take the Steelers.

In the Monday Night Football game, we finally get a matchup worthy of Monday Night Football as the Colts travel to Jacksonville. The Jags have looked pretty strong all year and look tocontenders.

However, the Colts are coming off a bye week and when you give head coach Tony Dungy an extra week to prepare, you can expect big results. Look for a big, exciting game, but I don't see the Colts falling just yet.

I'll take the Colts, and let the excitement begin. So those are my picks, send yours to sasspted@isugw.indstate.edu and see if you have
what it takes to predict the NFL. If you beat me, you will have a chance for an iTunes giftcard. But you are going to have
to beat me first.

NFL Predictions-Week 6

Things settled down a little in the NFL last week - although that wasn't saying much - but there were still a few upsets. I finished last week at 10-4 bringing my season record to 42-34.

Enough with the past, on to week six predictions: This week's match ups leave very few picks that I have a whole lot of confidence in. However, those few picks include: Ravens over Rams (until the Rams prove otherwise or are playing the Dolphins, I will always pick their opponents), Browns over Dolphins (see note about the Rams, but switch Rams and Dolphins around), Seahawks over Saints and Giants over Falcons. The only pick of those that worries me in the slightest is that the Dolphins will most likely win at some point this season, and I can see the Browns being the team to give up that one game.

In the Minnesota-Chicago battle of teams with good defenses, decent running games and pitiful quarterbacks, I see a lot of turnovers. After watching the Chicago-Green Bay game on Sunday, it makes me believe the Bears will pull off a win, but I see Adrian Peterson having a big game and with Minnesota fully rested, I like their chances. I'll take the Vikings.

Speaking of Green Bay, they play host to the Redskins this Sunday afternoon for the battle of the teams-who-no-one-thought-would-be-doing-as-well-as-they-are. Washington took the Lions to school on their own turf for the 21st consecutive time, and the Packers lost a close game to the Bears, but the Packers aren't playing the Bears, and the Redskins do not have the comfort of their own home. I'll take the Packers in an exciting game.

In the battle of the should-have-been-a-lot-better-than-they-have-been teams between the Bengals and Chiefs, I expect to see a fully rested-and-ready Bengals team blow away a lost Chiefs team. I also expected a lot more from both the Jets and Eagles, but both have fallen short this season. When they match up this week, one team will walk away a winner and a season rejuvenated, and I really don't see the Jets doing that. I'll take the Eagles.

The Titans have looked great this year and Tampa Bay is coming back around. Tennessee employs the second-best run defense in the league allowing a mere 72 yards per game, and with Pittman out this week, don't expect that to change. The Bucs have gotten more and more powerful with the passing game, but I don't see it being enough to stop the versatile Titans.

Houston travels to Jacksonville as two teams that have a lot of potential but little consistency duke it out. The Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew finally looked like the back he was last year, and when he is contributing in a big way, the Jags can be dangerous. Matt Schaub has become a godsend to the Texans and elevated their passing game.

However, the Jaguars have only given up two passing touchdowns this year. I'll take the Jags, but this could be a pretty exciting game (who would have thought a Houston-Jacksonville match up would be exciting?).

Carolina has been very iffy this year while Arizona has continued to look stronger. But a lot will be riding on the veteran Kurt Warner to carry a full load with Matt Leinart out for the season. If the offensive line can keep it up, the Cardinals will actually be contenders this year. If not, Warner's backup (Tim Rattay) better be good, because Warner is not as durable as he once was, and he wasn't that durable to begin with. I think they'll keep it up, so I am taking the Cardinals.

As long as we see the San Diego that faced the Broncos last week and not the team that faced the Packers and Chiefs in weeks three and four, respectively, I see an easy Chargers win. If not, we may see a winning record out of Oakland and more chants of "Schott-en-heim-er" out of the fans. I'll take the Chargers, but it makes me nervous.

The final and biggest game of the week is the showdown of the undefeateds: the Patriots and Cowboys.

The Pats have dominated every game they have played this year and the Cowboys just barely pulled off a win this last week (who would have thought a team would turn the ball over five more times than their opponent and still win?), but the Patriots have not been tested this year like they will be this Sunday. Many consider the last-second win by the Cowboys as a sign that they will lose horribly to New England, but I see just the opposite.

That game only made the Cowboys stronger, and you know Tony Romo will not throw five picks and fumble once in the same game ever again. He got that out of his system and still pulled off the win. The Cowboys never gave up and continued to push even after they kept giving the ball back to the Bills. This showed the resiliency of the Cowboys defense and the Dallas offense will bounce right back.

After Romo muffed the snap in the playoffs to lose it for the Cowboys last season, he took it personally and never wanted to let his team down again. He has taken the five picks just as much to heart and will not throw so much on his team again.

The Patriots are powerful and easily one of the top two teams in the AFC, if not the top team, but there is a certain emotion and love of the game that you find with the Cowboys and that the bone-crunching, eat-your-bones-for-breakfast Patriots just have not shown me. I'll take the Cowboys, and this is a game I will not be missing. Don't be surprised if we see a rematch in Arizona in February.

NFL Predictions-Week 5

After another crazy week in the NFL, it looks like my call of the Cardinals over the Steelers really paid off as I ended up staying on top this week, with several only one game behind me. After an 8-6 week, I rose above .500 at 32-30. Now on to the predictions:

The only easy picks this week are Dallas over Buffalo in the Monday Night Football game, Indy at home over Tampa Bay, and Green Bay at home over the mightily struggling Bears in the Sunday Night Football game. The Bucs aren't as bad as they have been in the past and actually boast a 3-1 record, but I really don't see them having much of a chance in Indy against the Colts. The SNF game will be a big game and don't expect the Bears to roll over for the Packers. This game will be played with a ton of emotion and pride, but I see the Bears making too many mistakes against a very deadly team.

A rested Tennessee will walk all over the Falcons and the Jags, coming off their bye week as well, have had plenty of time to prepare for a still rather confused Chiefs team. Fantasy owners with Maurice Jones-Drew should look for a big breakout game by the running back and a big Jaguar win.

Arizona comes out of the upset over the Steelers with a lot of confidence and an idea that they can win again, as they travel to the beaten up Rams. The Rams won't play dead for the Cardinals, but I don't think they will have what it takes to pull out the win either. I'll take the Cardinals. New England over the Browns was an easy pick for me originally, but the more I think about it, the more I see the upset possibility. This game will all depend on which Cleveland Browns team shows up this Sunday, and could really test the Patriots for the first time this year. Had the game been held in Cleveland, I would pick the Browns as my upset special, but in New England, I'll stick with the Pats.

In both the Carolina at New Orleans and Jets at Giants games, an inconsistent but potentially tough team (Panthers and Giants) faces a team that has had it rough all year (Saints and Jets). Both the Saints and Jets are looking to come back from tough starts, and I think the Saints, coming off the bye week with time to regroup, will. I'll take the Saints over Panthers, but Giants over Jets.

I'll take the Texans over the Dolphins, not because of how unstoppable the Texans have become, but because of how stoppable the Dolphins are.

Detroit will travel to Washington and prove just how much of a contender in the NFC they are, and Pittsburgh will take on a tough Seattle team at home. I'll take Detroit and Pittsburgh, but the Steelers-Seahawks game will be the one to watch of the early afternoon games.

The San Diego Chargers are not the team they were last season and they really need to figure out what is going on before it becomes too late. It's not too late yet, but in a tough AFC, it may come sooner than one might think. Denver is looking for revenge after a loss to the Colts this Sunday and travel home to face the Chargers. The Broncos will get that revenge. Look for an ugly, one-sided game and a big Broncos win.

Baltimore was embarrassed by their loss to the Browns this Sunday and will take it out on an overrated and confused 49ers team. San Francisco won't just hand the game to the Ravens, but Baltimore will pull out the win in the fourth quarter. So those are my picks, keep yours coming. You have nothing to lose and an iTunes gift card to gain. Bring it.